Re: Al Those Great Scientists Here

On Wed, 7 May 2008 17:35:42 -0700, "Tom Kunich" <cyclintom@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
 com>
wrote:

>Global warming MAY be occurring - if so it is a natural process that man
has 
>essentially no connection to. More than likely it is nothing more than 
>another warming phase caused by the sun. The fact is that historically
we're 
>on the edge of another ice age.


The earth's temperature has always changed, it is currently changing
and it will continue to change.  

Very few scientists would question that the earth has gotten warmer
over the last century.  Determining the average temperature of the
earth is not an exact science, but very few serious scientists would
disagree that the earth is in a warming cycle.

There is also scientific evidence that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  This
has been proven by empirical experiments which have been replicated
numerous times. You can take that as a fact.

Human activity has been increasing the amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere.

Therefore it is reasonable to assume that human activity is having an
effect on global temperature.

Going beyond that is where the trouble lies.

The temperature of the earth is effected by numerous factors, of which
the greenhouse effect is only one.  It is impossible to determine
accurately what percent of the earth's temperature is the result of
the greenhouse effect.  The overall climate system is not understood
well enough to do that.  

To add to the problem, the greenhouse effect itself is a very complex
process.  It is impossible to accurately measure exactly how much CO2
contributes to the overall greenhouse effect.  

Thus it is impossible for there to be any scientific proof of exactly
how much humans are contributing to global warming.  

In reality, there aren't two camps to this issue.  The reality is that
there is a continuum, of opinions.  The top end of the spectrum is
seen in the UN ICCP re****t which states that it is "highly likely"
that a "significant" amount of the warming seen in the past 100 years
is of human origin.  Obviously even this statement is not very
precise.  On the other end are scientists that say that CO2
contribution to the greenhouse effect is small and that human activity
is only a small percent of that amount. 

The bottom line is that no one really knows for sure.  I'm rooting for
the scientists that minimize the human impact because I have very
little hope that there will be any reduction in CO2 emission.  In
fact, I'm sure that the opposite is true.  CO2 emissions will continue
to increase.

Of course, there are some people who think that global warming isn't
that bad and that humans will adjust just fine.  Or perhaps humans may
come up with a technical solution that will allow them to control the
CO2 levels in the atmosphere, or at least stop the human contribution
to CO2.